Yes, it’s very possible that interest rates will be higher or the USD will be lower, and so you’ll be sitting on either a nominal loss or a real loss. I would not necessarily recommend buying individual rental properties unless you have A LOT of time and willingness to manage them and deal with crazy tenants, emergencies, etc. I do not.

Other than real estate and a generally diversified portfolio, think about using the $50-$100K to start some type of side business that generates cash flow… in the long term that will pay off more than financial assets.

My question is around where you see the real estate market going. I know its geographic dependent. But my main concern is the 5+ years timeline for the general market. I think asset prices will continue to grow over next 1-3 years, due to stimulus from both fed and the government and interest rates will remain low. However, what I am concerned about is mid-long term. What happens when that low 5-year fixed rate I am approved for now becomes variable when interest rates are higher. What happens to the asset price I am sitting on when interest rates increase. Do you think its a likely possibility that 5+ years from now I’ll be stuck paying a higher interest rate on a house that I essentially have a capital loss on due to asset prices correcting from interest rate increases? And a side question any tips you would have for someone in their mid 20’s with $50-$100k ready to invest if you don’t agree with real estate (aside from portfolio allocation)?

Yes, but there would still be some overlap period where I’d end up owing taxes in both countries, which is annoying. This is less of an issue in a place like Singapore because the tax rate is so much lower to begin with.

Also, I’m not sure I could actually get EU citizenship because I would have to pass some type of language/history test (most countries require this, unless you want to pay millions in Cyprus or something)… and I’m probably not at the level required to pass, given that I spend almost 0 time talking to people in real life (and it’s gotten worse since the pandemic started). Oh, and you need 8-10 years of residency in most countries, which I don’t have.

Brian- Happy New Year! Not to press on the EU part further, but sincerely curious because it’s a thought I had myself for some time now. If you became an EU citizen and renounced your US citizenship like you mentioned, wouldn’t that eliminate your tax concerns?

EU citizenship would create tax issues because I am also a resident, which means my effective tax rate would be something like ~80% (the exemption from U.S. taxes on income earned while abroad is such a small percentage for me that it’s basically meaningless). And I don’t have the documentation to apply for citizenship through family descent in other countries in which I am not currently a resident.

I don’t think anyone is comparing Google, or any stock, to a 10-year T-bill. The proper comparison is to other stocks that are growing at moderate rates. And while Google is less bubbly than the other big tech companies, a 35x P/E multiple is still very high for 20% growth, by historical standards (oh, and not to nitpick, but the projected growth rate is more like 10-15%). It’s currently trading at its highest EBITDA and revenue multiples over the past decade, according to Capital IQ. So, maybe not a “bubble,” but definitely the most expensive it has ever been. And the company is about to be broken up or heavily regulated.

I don’t place bets online with readers, but I would not be surprised if both countries remain highly restricted for decades. Yes, maybe they’ll eventually let in some people, but they’ll probably raise the bar for residency and citizenship so high that effectively no one can apply except for the ultra-high net worth. And you know that as soon as there’s one COVID case in some small town in the middle of nowhere, they’ll instantly shut down the whole country again.

Thanks. Good questions. I don’t benchmark against public indices, but my goal is to grow my total assets by 25% per year, under the assumption that the actual rate of inflation is ~10% (based on the Chapwood index).

In the past two years, I am up 90%, so roughly 45% per year. But that also includes contributions from business income and rent, so it’s not purely from investing. Investing contributed maybe 50% of that gain. And I’ll admit that a large portion of it came from the run-up in gold and crypto prices, so it will be more difficult to replicate in future years.

If I were actually “retired” (i.e., no business or self-employment income), I would have to be more conservative and focus more on income generation.

Yeah…

Curious, why don’t you want to apply for EU citizenship? Mine was just approved through the Czech Republic…

What makes you say FAANG is in bubble territory? Owning Google with a P/E of 35 and revenue growing at 20% sounds infinitely better than owning a 10 year t-bill yielding 1% with no chance of growth.

A 20-30 YEAR shutdown for New Zealand and Australia? That’s a bit excessive no? Care to place a long bet on that time horizon? :)